Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges With Putin Over Ukraine

Reports of an upcoming US-Russia presidential meeting have been overstated, apparently.

Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to meet Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."

• Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
• Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed

The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in Gaza.

While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"It is essential to get Russia done," he declared.

However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing several years.

Less Leverage

Per Witkoff, the key to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that gave him special sway over the nation's head.

Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the conflict.

At the same time, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to back off in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.

Trump often boasts about his skill to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any nearer a peaceful end.

The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.

During the summer, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards delayed.

Recently, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called the US president who then promoted the possible meeting in Hungary.

The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.

The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.

But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.

Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately urging the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.

During his election campaign last year, Trump promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.