Vladimir Putin and Modi to Meet During Politically Treacherous Times for Russia & New Delhi

When the Russian President traveled to the South Asian nation in the previous decade, the international order looked entirely distinct. The brief visit, curtailed by the pandemic, centered around discussions on economic and military ties between the two nations.

Months later, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine would turn the Russian leader into a figure of international condemnation, significantly restricting his overseas engagements.

Additionally, that era preceded a significant shift in US-India relations, marked by contentious rhetoric and the imposition of heavy import duties.

"Against this backdrop, the significance of this diplomatic mission to engage with the Indian PM is profound, serving as a symbol of enduring ties and a rejection of outside coercion," experts emphasize.

A Critical Juncture for Both Nations

The high-level meeting occurs at a crucial time. President Putin arrives following rejecting recent peace proposals for Ukraine, confident due to claimed advances by Russian forces.

"From Moscow's perspective, the primary importance of this engagement is its simple happening," commented a senior researcher based in Moscow. "It indicates a movement toward something resembling routine global diplomacy."

From Delhi's standpoint, the stakes are even higher. The country faces a challenging geopolitical climate, characterized by a less engaged United States, a weakened Russia, and an assertive China.

The tightrope walk was highlighted just before the visit, when senior Western diplomats released a joint opinion piece questioning Russia's commitment to peace. This elicited a firm rebuke from Indian officials, who labeled it an unacceptable interference.

'China Remains the Greatest Threat'

The historical partnership originates from the Cold War era and is deeply entrenched, with Moscow long being Delhi's top defense supplier. This alliance was generally accepted by the West before a change in approach.

For years, Western nations overlooked India's substantial purchases of cheap energy from Russia. Yet, recently stalled diplomacy, pressure mounted, leading to punitive tariffs and a significant downturn in transatlantic relations with Delhi.

"In response, India has returned to its default strategy of 'hedging'," explained a foreign policy expert. "It signals to the US that it has alternatives and is waiting to see how the situation unfolds."

Apart from global diplomacy, India's fundamental concern with Russia is geography. "China remains the primary security challenge to India, and for decades, India has depended on Russia as a continental balancer against China," the analyst added.

The deepening Moscow-Beijing axis has caused concern in Delhi, leading to efforts to avoid an unbreakable bond between its northern neighbor and its traditional ally.

This concern has also spurred India's drive to reduce its defense procurement, shrinking its dependence on Russian equipment from about 70% to a reduced portion in the past few years.

"Delhi will try to find a middle ground: buy sufficient Russian arms to keep the partnership alive, but not become so dependent that a sudden cutoff would cripple its defenses," the analyst remarked.

Energy and Economic Ties

Increased economic cooperation is expected to be a major topic. The Russian leader has recently emphasized plans to elevate cooperation with India to a "higher plane", defying Western sanctions.

The issue of crude oil purchases remains pivotal. Although the Indian government has vowed to keep buying Russian oil, recent restrictions have dampened activity from the commercial buyers. At the same time, India has moved to boost imports of American oil and gas.

A Kremlin spokesperson admitted "hurdles" in economic cooperation but insisted it would continue without major disruption. The official minimized the effect of sanctions, stating they would cause only "insignificant" and "brief" drops and that Russia possesses the "means" to circumvent them.

Diplomatic Constraints

As talks proceed, the issue of Ukraine is likely to be mentioned primarily through India's standard call for a peaceful resolution.

"While the Indian leader can speak to both sides, the nation does not possess the diplomatic clout to alter the course of the war," the analyst said. "Aside from urging negotiations, its ability to effect change is limited."

Ultimately, despite the visible friendship between the two leaders, the partnership is fundamentally one of "pure realpolitik," guided by cold calculation in a rapidly changing world.